Australian wine exports declined overall in the year ending September 2026, but the results varied significantly across markets. Strong growth in Southeast Asia and Canada was offset by more challenging conditions in the United States (US).
This Market Bulletin will analyse the latest export data, released today, examining the trends impacting performance across Australian wine’s major export destinations.
In the 12 months ended September 2026, the value of Australian wine exports declined by 7 per cent to $2.25 billion.
The volume of exports declined by 5 per cent to 590 million litres, the lowest volume since 2004. The largest driver of the decline in volume year-on-year was exports to the US, which declined by 22 per cent in volume (27 million litres). While there was reasonable growth in volume to mainland China, Canada, New Zealand, and Japan, this was unable to offset the loss in exports to the US (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: Top ten markets by volume, 12 months ended September
The top contributors to the decline in value were mainland China, the US, Hong Kong, and the United Kingdom (UK). However, there was strong growth into Canada, New Zealand, and Southeast Asia during the last 12 months. The Southeast Asian region grew by 16 per cent to overtake the United States in value (see Figure 2).
Figure 2: Export value by destination, 12 months ended September
Southeast Asia and Canada lead growth
Southeast Asia was the greatest source of Australian wine export value growth, increasing by 16 per cent to $291 million. The region continues to offer opportunities for premium Australian wine.
However, because Southeast Asia only accounts for 4 per cent of export volume, its strong value growth has not yet translated into a large increase in Australia’s total export volume.
The strongest performance in this region has been in Thailand, growing by 57 per cent in the 12 months ended September 2026 to a record value of $73 million (see Figure 3). Beneficial tax and policy changes, a growing interest in wine, and Australia’s already strong position in the market have all helped to achieve this outcome. Exports to Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam also grew in the last 12 months.
Figure 3: Australian wine exports to Thailand
The most significant driver of both volume and value growth in the 12 months to September 2026 was Canada. Exports of Australian wine to Canada grew by 12 per cent in value to $185 million and 14 per cent in volume to 70 million litres.
Australia has gained market share in Canada as American wines have been taken off shelves during the ongoing Canada-US trade dispute. While growth did start to moderate in the last 6 months, volume in the June and September 2026 quarters was still higher than in the previous year (see Figure 4).
Figure 4: Export volume to Canada by quarter
Still red wine exports (especially Cabernet Sauvignon) remain the driving category behind Australian wine’s growth in Canada, growing by 15 per cent in value in the past 12 months. However, there has also been good growth in still white (up 8 per cent in value) and still rosé (up 21 per cent) exports.
Growth was spread across price points – with exports below $5 per litre growing by 14 per cent in volume and exports with an average value of $5 per litre and above growing by 15 per cent – creating opportunities for both commercial and higher-value wines.
Mainland China remains a major premium market
It has been two turbulent years of exports to mainland China after tariffs on Australian bottled wine were removed in March 2024. Shipment levels now seem to be stabilising (see Figure 5).
In the 12 months ended September 2026, exports to mainland China declined by 10 per cent in value to $759 million and grew by 8 per cent in volume to 79 million litres.
Mainland China is still a major market for premium Australian wine, with an average value of $9.57 per litre. However, the market outlook continues to be uncertain due to economic headwinds and a changing wine culture.
Figure 5: Australian wine exports to mainland China
Understanding the pressures in the US market
Headwinds in the US wine market continue, making the volume loss in exports to the US the biggest contributor to total volume decline.
Australian wine exports to the US declined by 28 per cent in value to $219 million and 22 per cent in volume to 93 million litres in the 12 months ended September 2026. While exports in the last quarter of the period were more similar to the previous year’s, the loss in export value over the course of the 12 months is at a level not seen since the Global Financial Crisis.
The import value of wine from all source countries into the US dropped by 20 per cent in the 12 months to August 2026, according to Trade Data Monitor, mainly driven by the introduction of tariffs on imported wine. It is important to note that import value is more likely to be affected by the rise in import tariffs than volume (down 13 per cent) as producers adjust pricing accordingly.
However, the rise in tariffs on imported wine is only part of the troubles wine producers are facing in the market. Generational shifts in attitudes towards drinking are having a large impact on wine consumption. Older generations (who are key wine drinkers) are reducing alcohol consumption as they age. Meanwhile younger generations are drinking less on each occasion than previous generations did at the same age. Analysis of the National Survey on Drug Use and Health data by bw166 indicates that American 21- to 29-year-olds are drinking 30 per cent less per occasion now than the same age group did in the early 2000’s.
According to Impact Databank, the US wine market declined for the fifth year in a row in 2025, falling by 2.5 per cent (more than 8 million cases).
Wines produced in the US have a dominant 69 per cent share of the American wine market1. Although there have been vineyard removals, the decline in wine consumption has led to an oversupply of US-produced wine and winegrapes – with reports that 50 per cent of this year’s crush was uncontracted (compared to 20 to 30 per cent normally)2. An oversupply of domestically produced wine makes the marketplace even more competitive for imports.
Australian rosé finds growth in the UK
In comparison to the US, the environment for wine sales in the UK is also very tough but the declines are more moderate.
Australian wine exports to the UK in the last 12 months were very closely aligned with category trends in market. Exports declined by 3 per cent in value to $327 million and 2 per cent in volume to 187 million litres. Total wine sales in the UK off-premise declined by 1 per cent in value and 3 per cent in volume in the 12 months ended September 2026, according to Circana.
The performance of Australian wine exports by wine style also aligns well with the major market trends. Still red wine drove most of the decline in exports, down 4 per cent in both volume and value, while total off-premise red wine sales in the UK have declined by 8 per cent in volume in the last 12 months.
The key growth driver of wine sales in the UK is currently rosé – up 4 per cent in volume and 7 per cent in value. Australian wine exporters are seeing benefits from this trend, with rosé exports increasing by 27 per cent in volume.
Explore the Export Dashboard for detailed data to help inform your export planning.