IWSR predicts declining volumes but increasing value in the global wine market

Market Bulletin | Issue 185
03 Dec 2019
Previous  News

The International Wine and Spirit Record (IWSR) is predicting a slight decline in the volume of wine sold and a slight increase in the value of wine sold globally to 2023.

Still wine

IWSR is forecasting that the volume of still wine sold across the globe will decline by 0.1 per cent per annum and value will increase by 0.8 per cent per annum from 2018 to 2023. The still wine share of total wine sales is predicted to fall marginally by volume from 89 to 88 per cent but maintain its value share at 83 per cent of sales.

By price point, IWSR predicts that global sales of wines under $US10 per bottle will decline (by 0.6 per cent in volume and by 0.3 per cent in value each year; see Figure 1). In contrast, sales of wines above US$10 per bottle are predicted to grow by 2.6 per cent in volume and 2.7 per cent in value each year.

If these forecasts come to pass, this would mean the volume share of wines under $US10 per bottle would fall from 87 per cent to 85 per cent and their value share would fall from 65 per cent to 62 per cent.

Figure 1: Value of global still wine sales by price point (2018–23)

Source: IWSR

IWSR predicts that the top 10 still wine markets in 2023 will be:

Rank

Volume

Value

1

United States of America

United States of America

2

Italy

China

3

France

Italy

4

Germany

United Kingdom

5

China

France

6

United Kingdom

Germany

7

Argentina

Canada

8

Spain

Spain

9

Russia

Australia

10

Romania

Brazil

By volume, the only change in the top 10 markets compared to 2018 is that Romania displaces Australia in tenth place; With Australia dropping to eleventh position.

By value, there are more movements in the rankings. Italy moves from fifth to third, United Kingdom drops from third to fourth and France from fourth to fifth. Spain and Australia swap positions eight and nine while Brazil jumps into tenth place, displacing Japan.

Of the top 10 still wine markets by value, the fastest growing markets are predicted by IWSR to be China (up by 3.9 per cent per annum), Spain and Brazil (each up 2.4 per cent per annum), the United States of America (USA) (up 1.7 per cent per annum) and Canada (up 1.4 per cent per annum).

One of the fastest growing markets outside the top ten by value is predicted to be India, with a growth rate of 9.9 per cent per annum. However, India is expected to remain a relatively small market with still wine sales of US$455 million and a market ranking of forty-second place in 2023. In comparison, the USA still wine market is expected to reach US$35 billion and China US$17 billion. Mexico and Poland are also expected to grow strongly over the period, up by 3.8 per and 3.6 per cent per annum respectively. The Polish market is expected to almost hit $1 billion while Mexico is expected to be closing in on $800 million by 2023.The value of still wine sales are predicted to be hardest hit in France (down 1.9 per cent per annum) and the United Kingdom (down 1.8 per cent per annum).

Other wines

IWSR predicts sales of sparkling wine to grow in volume by 1 per cent and in value by 2 per cent per annum over the five-year period. The USA is forecast to extend its lead as the world’s biggest sparkling wine market by value in 2023, with sales expected to grow by 4 per cent per annum over the period.

Within the top ten sparkling wine markets, the other stand-out markets for growth over the period are Russia (up 4 per cent per annum), Japan (up 3 per cent per annum) and Australia (up 2 per cent per annum).

IWSR has forecast the global sales of fortified wines to decline by 2 per cent per annum in both volume and value over the period. Russia is the biggest market for fortified wine, but sales are expected to decline by 3 per cent per annum through to 2023. Most of the other markets in the top ten are also forecast to decline, with the exceptions of Portugal and South Africa (sales in each up 1 per cent per annum). Outside of the top 10, Sweden is the stand-out for future growth, with the IWSR predicting fortified wine sales in the market to grow by 14 per cent per annum.


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