In last week’s bulletin, we examined South Korea, a wine market ranked as the second most attractive in the world, according to the Global Compass 2020 published by Wine Intelligence. This week we delve into another growing market, Poland.
The Global Compass ranks Poland as the fifth most attractive wine market in the world, up from 14th place in 2019. It also places Poland as one of seven 'growth' markets in the world, along with South Korea, Russia, Singapore, Romania, Brazil and Mexico. Wine Intelligence classifies a growth market as one where there is:
- Mid to high level market volumes with sustained growth
- Strong growth of imported wine
- Mid to high overall market retail value and increasing as the volumes rise
- Wine consumption that is lower than in most established and mature markets, but wine consumption is increasing, and
- Wine is establishing itself as a mainstream product and developing its niche within the alcoholic beverage category.
Each of these factors will be analysed for Poland.
Market volume and growth
According to IWSR, the volume of still wine consumed in Poland totaled 13.1 million cases in 2019. This places Poland as one of 21 countries with a still wine market of between 10 and 50 million cases (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: Number of countries by market size
|>50 million cases ||11 |
|10-50 million cases ||21 |
|<10 million cases ||133 |
There has been sustained growth in still wine consumption in Poland (see Figure 2). The compound annual growth rate was 3.7 per cent in the 10 years to 2019, 3.6 per cent for the last 5 years and 2.7 per cent in the last year. IWSR has forecast still wine consumption to decline 24 per cent in 2020 due to COVID-19 impacts but to then grow by an average annual rate of 5.9 per cent in the four years to 2024.
Figure 2: Still wine consumption in Poland over time (million 9Le cases)
There has been strong growth in imported wine in Poland. According to the Global Trade Atlas, the volume of imported wine grew from 9.4 million cases in 2009 to 15.4 million cases in 2019. This equates to a 10-year annual growth rate of 5 per cent.
Figure 3: Total wine imports to Poland over time (million 9Le cases)
Source: Global Trade Atlas
Australian wine currently has a relatively low profile in Poland, ranked thirteenth in imported volumes. In 2019–20, there were only 19 Australian companies exporting to Poland.
Australian exports, while there has been some annual variance, have been on a general upward trend over the past decade (see Figure 4).
Figure 4: Australian wine exports to Poland by value (A$ million FOB)
Source: Wine Australia
According to the IWSR, the retail value of still wine in Poland was US$893 million in 2019. This places Poland in the mid-range of markets by value. Poland’s global value rank (30) is slightly below its volume rank (29).
The value of the still wine market in Poland has been growing at a faster rate than volume. The compound annual growth rate was 5.3 per cent in the 10 years to 2019, 5.6 per cent for the last 5 years and 4.4 per cent in the last year.
Figure 5 Number of countries by market value
|>US$5 billion ||8 |
|US$500 million - US$5 billion ||32 |
|<US$5 billion ||125 |
In 2019, per capita consumption of wine in Poland was 3.1 litres, relatively low compared to more established markets such as Germany (23.9 litres) and the United Kingdom (15 litres).
While per capita consumption has been declining in Germany and the UK, it has been steadily rising in Poland. In 2009, wine consumption was 2.1 litres per head (see Figure 6).
Figure 6: Per capita wine consumption – Poland v Germany and United Kingdom (litres per head)
Wine’s place in the alcoholic beverage category
Wine is a small but growing segment within the alcoholic beverage category in Poland. According to the IWSR, wine held a 5 per cent volume share of the market, compared to 88 per cent for beer and 7 per cent for spirits.