The Australian Wine Production, Sales and Inventory Report 2025, based on the annual Wine Production, Sales and Inventory survey of large winemakers in Australia, indicates that wine production increased by 9 per cent compared with 2024 while sales were steady, leading to an unwelcome rise in national stock levels. This Market Bulletin looks at the report findings, the outlook for supply and demand, and the implications for vintage 2026.
Production
Total Australian wine production from the 2025 vintage is estimated to be 1.13 billion litres1, or 126 million 9-litre case equivalents. This is 9 per cent higher than in 2024 but 7 per cent (89 million litres) below the 10-year average of 1.22 billion litres. It reflects the increase of 11 per cent in the crush, which was up from 1.41 million tonnes in 2024 to 1.57 million tonnes.
The production of red wine increased by 15 per cent, while the production of white wine increased by 2 per cent. Red wine returned to having the larger share of production (52 per cent) after falling below white in 2023–24. This result was not surprising, as the increase in the crush was almost entirely in red grapes.
Although reds overtook whites, the difference in production volume between red and white was less than 50 million litres – the second-smallest gap since 2014–15 (Figure 1).
Figure 1 Wine production by colour 2005-06 to 2024–2025
Source: Wine Australia Production, Sales and Inventory surveys
Although production was still below the 10-year average, it was the second successive year of increases from the 20-year low in 2022–23, despite the stock-to-sales ratio remaining well above the long-term average at the end of the 2023–24 year.
Sales
The total volume of Australian wine sold in 2024–25 is estimated to be almost unchanged from the previous year at 1.08 billion litres (120 million 9-litre cases).
The near-identical overall result was a combination of an increase of 19 million litres (4 per cent) in still red (including rosé) wine sales, driven by exports, while still white wine sales decreased by 15 million litres (3 per cent), with both export and domestic sales declining. Export sales accounted for 59 per cent of sales by volume – an increase of one percentage point year-on-year, while domestic sales accounted for 41 per cent.
Export sales increased by 3 per cent to 638 million litres, driven by growth in exports to mainland China, which increased by 53 million litres to 85 million litres in the latest 12-month period. This figure represents the first full financial year of normal trading since the tariffs on Australian wine to mainland China were lifted in March 2024. Despite this return to normal trading conditions, the volume exported to mainland China was less than half what it was at its peak in 2017–18.
On the domestic market, sales of Australian wine declined by 3 per cent in volume to 443 million litres – 7 per cent below the 10-year average of 479 million litres and the second-lowest (after 2021–22) since 2007–08. After growing consistently between 2006–07 and 2016–17, sales of Australian wine domestically have been gradually declining for most of the past decade (Figure 2).
Figure 2 Sales of Australian wine on the domestic market over time
Source: Wine Australia Production, Sales and Inventory surveys and ABS surveys (pre-2015)
Still white wine’s share of total sales fell from 43 per cent in 2023–24 to 41 per cent, while still red and rosé wine increased their combined share from 48 per cent to 50 per cent in 2024–25. Sparkling and fortified made up the remaining 9 per cent. If sparkling and fortified are allocated proportionally to their respective colours, then red wine overall made up 52 per cent of sales – exactly the same as its share of production.
The total revenue to Australian wine producers from export and domestic sales in 2024–25 is estimated to be $6.02 billion, an increase of 5 per cent compared with the previous year, driven by a 13 per cent increase in export value.
The increase in production and decline in sales compared with 2023–24 meant that production exceeded sales by around 52 million litres or 6 million 9-litres cases (5 per cent) in 2024–25. This is the equivalent of around 75,000 tonnes.
A crush of approximately 1.5 million tonnes is required to match the current sales volume of approximately 1.1 billion litres.
Inventory and stock-to-sales ratios
The excess production led to a 94 million litre (5 per cent) increase in national inventory, which is estimated to be 2.06 billion litres as at 30 June 20252. Both the 2024 inventory figure and the 10-year average are 1.96 billion litres.
Most of the increase was in white still wine, which increased by 92 million litres (15 per cent) to 714 million litres, 5 per cent above the 10-year average and the highest since 2017–18. This was a result of the increase in production combined with a decrease in sales.
Red wine inventory increased by 3 per cent (33 million litres) to 1.15 billion litres, bringing it closely in line with the 10-year average (1.12 billion litres).
After showing a positive (downward) trend for the previous two years from the record high reached in 2021–22, the national stock-to-sales ratio (SSR) increased again in 2024–25 – up by 4 per cent to 1.9 to be 15 per cent above the 10-year average of 1.66.
Based on current sales figures, there is an excess of around 262 million litres of wine in stock compared with what would be needed for an SSR of 1.66. That is the equivalent of around 375,000 tonnes of winegrapes. To remove this excess and restore balance, the next few vintages would need to be below the 1.5 million tonne level required to match sales in the same year.
The white wine SSR was up by 19 per cent to 1.59 – taking it 15 per cent over its 10-year average of 1.38, while the SSR for red wine decreased slightly to 2.12 – still well above its 10-year average of 1.88 (Figure 3). This big jump reflects the increase in inventory of over 90 million litres, after white wine production exceeded sales by approximately that amount, without a corresponding increase in sales3.
Figure 3 Stock-to-sales ratio for wine by colour 2007–2025 and 10-year averages
Outlook for vintage 2026
An analysis of market conditions suggests that the outlook for wine has deteriorated in the past 12 months. Global consumption has continued to decline and remains lower than global production, despite reported adjustments occurring to vineyard areas in some countries and near-record low vintages in 2023 and 2024. The first production forecasts released by OIV in November 2025 indicate that production increased by 3 per cent in 2025. While this is still low by historical standards, it is likely to exceed consumption, which was 21.4 billion litres in 2024 and is forecast to decline further in 20254.
IWSR forecasts that global wine consumption will decrease by a total of 8 per cent over the next five years. This equates to a total reduction of approximately 1.5 billion litres of wine. Two-thirds of this reduction is forecast to be in commercial wines (i.e. those that retail for less than US$10 or equivalent in other currencies). If the IWSR forecasts eventuate, then the global wine market will have shrunk by 20 per cent over the decade. The total loss in wine consumption would be more than four times the size of Australia’s annual wine production volume.
These unfavourable global conditions are compounded for Australia by the high stock levels carried forward from the 2025 vintage and the lack of adjustment to the supply base (i.e. vineyard area). The rise in stock-to-sales ratio for Australian white wine this year suggests there might have been an over-correction in production, after two years of strong demand for the major Australian white varieties, particularly Sauvignon Blanc, when supply was low in New Zealand, South Africa and Chile and consumer demand was strong.
Since 2022, supply has recovered in the other countries, while consumption has declined. The offer prices for Australian white wines on the global bulk wine market, a good indicator of global market conditions, reflect the reduced demand and increased available supply. The average global bulk wine offer price for Australian Sauvignon Blanc has decreased from $1.08 to $0.68 since 2022, and offer prices for all the major white varieties are lower now than they were in 2019. Meanwhile prices for the major reds have fallen by more than half in that timeframe, despite a short-lived upward bump in 2024 following the re-opening of the mainland China market (Figure 4).
Figure 4 Global bulk wine offer prices for Australian wine varieties
Source: Ciatti Global Market Reports
Without an accurate picture of Australia's vineyard supply base, including new plantings and removals, it is very difficult to keep supply and demand in balance. With the support of Australian grapegrowers, the National Vineyard Register Project, currently underway5 has the potential to provide an accurate, digital foundation dataset that can assist in understanding and responding to changes in supply and demand.
Updated price indicators for growers
The Wine Australia Grape Price Indicators Dashboard been updated today with the latest figures from the Australian Wine Production, Sales and Inventory Report 2025 as well as global figures from the OIV World Wine Production Outlook November 2025 and the Ciatti Global Market report for November. The price indicator arrow has been refreshed based on the latest data.
The recently published Domestic Sales Dashboard has also been updated with the latest Australian domestic sales and inventory figures.
1 Estimate based on the annual Wine Production, Sales and Inventory survey
2 Based on responses to the Production, Sales and Inventory Survey 2025
3 This analysis does not take into account sparkling and fortified wine, but is broadly correct
4 IWSR forecasts 2024
5 The National Vineyard Register Project is managed by Wine Australia and funded by the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry