The global wine industry has been undergoing a significant structural transformation. While declining overall wine consumption has attracted considerable attention, another important trend has emerged beneath the surface: a steady shift in consumer demand from red wine towards white and sparkling wine.
Over the past two decades, white and sparkling wines have gained market share, demonstrated greater resilience during periods of declining consumption and increasingly become the focus of investment by producers around the world. At the same time, red wine, while remaining the largest wine category globally, has lost share amid changing demographics, evolving lifestyles, moderation trends, increasing beverage competition and changing consumption occasions.
These developments are reshaping vineyard investment decisions, production strategies and export opportunities across the global industry. For Australia, whose international reputation has been built largely on Shiraz and other red varieties, understanding this shift will be critical to future success.
The implication is not a simple replacement of red wine by white and sparkling wine. Rather, global demand is becoming more selective, fragmented and occasion led.
A global wine market undergoing structural change
The global wine market expanded strongly throughout the 1990s and 2000s as rising incomes, increasing international trade and growing interest in wine culture supported sustained demand. Red wine accounted for much of this expansion and became the dominant style in many wine-consuming nations.
By the late 2010s, however, global wine consumption entered a period of decline. Economic uncertainty, health and wellness concerns, competition from alternative beverages and changing consumer behaviour all contributed to lower volumes. At the same time, the composition of wine consumption was also changing.
According to IWSR analysis, red wine's share of global wine consumption fell from approximately 52 per cent in 2012 to 43 per cent in 2025. Over the same period, white wine increased from 31 per cent to 34 per cent, while sparkling wine expanded from 8 per cent to 13 per cent.
This rebalancing reflects more than short-term economic pressures. It signals a fundamental shift in how consumers engage with wine. While overall consumption has declined across many mature wine markets, white and sparkling wines have proven more resilient than red wine, indicating that consumers are becoming increasingly selective about the styles they choose to drink.
As shown in Figure 1, global red wine consumption has fallen substantially from its historical peak. By contrast, white wine has experienced a much smaller decline and has gained share in a contracting market, while sparkling wine has emerged as one of the strongest-performing categories, delivering sustained growth and expanding its role across a wider range of consumption occasions.
Figure 1: Global wine consumption by wine style (billion litres) (Source: IWSR)
The changing role of red wine
For much of the twentieth century, red wine dominated global consumption. In countries such as France, Italy and Spain, it was closely connected to everyday meals, regional identity and cultural tradition.
That dominance has gradually eroded. Some of the largest declines in red wine consumption have occurred in major wine-producing and wine-consuming countries, reflecting changes in the frequency, context and occasions in which wine is consumed.
Traditional red wine consumption has often been associated with lengthy meals, formal dining occasions and cooler-weather occasions. Consumers now favour more casual and flexible occasions, including outdoor entertaining, after-work gatherings and informal dining, where lighter and more refreshing beverages are preferred.
Moderation trends have reinforced this shift. As consumers become more conscious of alcohol intake moderation and wellbeing, many are drinking wine less frequently and becoming more selective about the styles they consume and the occasions on which they drink them.
Research consistently suggests younger legal-drinking-age consumers generally drink alcohol less frequently and are more likely to switch between wine, beer, spirits, ready-to-drink products and no-alcohol alternatives depending on the occasion. As a result, wine faces greater competition for share of occasion than it did historically, increasing pressure on producers to ensure their wines remain relevant across a wider range of consumption moments.
As older generations reduce their wine consumption, red wine has generally been less successful than white and sparkling wine at recruiting younger consumers in sufficient numbers to offset these losses.
This does not remove the importance or appeal of red wine. Premium Australian Shiraz, Cabernet Sauvignon and other distinctive regional red wines continue to enjoy strong reputations internationally. The challenge is more pronounced in commercial segments that have traditionally relied on broad-based volume demand.
Changing occasions are also creating opportunities for innovation within red wine, including lighter styles, chilled serves, lower-alcohol products and occasion-led communication. These approaches can help extend red wine into more casual occasions without diminishing the importance of Australia’s established premium styles.
Why white wine has been relatively resilient
White wine’s relative resilience reflects its alignment with a range of contemporary consumption occasions.
Consumers are increasingly seeking refreshing, versatile and approachable beverages that can be enjoyed across settings ranging from casual social gatherings to meals at home and in restaurants. For many consumers, particularly those newer to wine, styles such as Sauvignon Blanc, Pinot Grigio, Riesling, rosé and sparkling wine can provide accessible entry points into the category through their familiarity and ease of understanding.
Changing food habits have also worked in white wine's favour. Increased consumption of seafood, plant-based meals and globally influenced cuisine has created more opportunities for lighter, fresher wine styles across everyday dining occasions. Varieties such as Sauvignon Blanc, Pinot Grigio, Chardonnay and Riesling are often well suited to these foods, reinforcing white wine's relevance as consumer tastes become increasingly diverse and globally influenced.
White wine's performance should not be viewed simply as a consequence of red wine's decline. It reflects the category's ability to remain relevant as consumers become more selective about when, where and what they drink.
Sparkling wine expands beyond celebration
While white wine's resilience has been notable, sparkling wine has delivered the clearest category growth of the past decade.
Sparkling wine's share of global wine consumption increased from approximately 8 per cent in 2012 to around 13 per cent in 2025, representing a substantial shift in consumer preferences.
Several factors have supported this growth.
Firstly, sparkling wine has successfully moved beyond traditional celebratory occasions and into everyday consumption moments., During and after the COVID-19 pandemic, many consumers became comfortable enjoying sparkling wine at home, normalising consumption across a broader range of settings.
Secondly, sparkling wine aligns closely with evolving consumer occasions. Its refreshment, versatility and suitability for social experiences has broadened its appeal across different demographics and consumer groups. The growing popularity of spritz serves has further expanded sparkling wine’s role beyond traditional celebrations and into casual social occasions.
The success of Prosecco illustrates these dynamics. Over the past two decades, Prosecco has evolved from a regional Italian product into a category with broad consumer recognition. Its affordability, accessibility and ability to fit both celebratory and casual occasions have helped expand the role of sparkling wine. Importantly, Prosecco has not simply taken share from competing wine categories; it has helped create entirely new consumption occasions and introduced wine to consumers who may not have entered the category through more traditional wine styles.
Taken together, these developments position sparkling wine as one of the clearest beneficiaries of the changing global wine landscape. Its ability to appeal across age groups, price points and consumption occasions suggests it is likely to remain a key source of growth for the global wine industry in the years ahead.
Production is responding to demand
Perhaps the strongest evidence that this shift is structural rather than cyclical can be found on the production side of the industry. Changes in consumer demand are increasingly being reflected in vineyard plantings, production volumes and investment decisions across the world's major wine-producing regions.
Global white wine production has increased steadily over the past two decades and overtook red wine production around 2013 (Figure 2). Many producers have progressively adjusted their portfolios, expanding white wine production, investing in sparkling wine capacity and, in some regions, reducing the relative dominance of red wine varieties.
Figure 2: Global wine production by colour over time (billion litres) (Source: International Organisation of Vine and Wine )
These changes are evident in several leading wine-producing countries. Italy’s success of Prosecco and Pinot Grigio and New Zealand’s Sauvignon Blanc-led production model illustrate how production profiles have aligned with categories demonstrating comparatively resilient demand.
France has undergone a similar evolution. While still synonymous with iconic red wine regions, some of its strongest growth areas have been Champagne, white Burgundy, Loire Valley whites and Provence rosé.
While these trends should not be interpreted as a uniform production signal, these developments demonstrate that producers are making long-term decisions based on expectations that demand for white and sparkling wines will remain comparatively strong.
Australia's response to the shift
Australia's production profile is beginning to reflect some of the same trends seen globally. While the nation's modern wine reputation was built strongly on Shiraz, Cabernet Sauvignon and other red varieties, recent data shows an increase in white varieties’ share of the national crush.
The 2026 vintage provides a clear example. Australia's total winegrape crush fell to an estimated 1.27 million tonnes, the smallest since 2000. White varieties accounted for 53 per cent of the crush, their highest share since 2012. The crush of red varieties fell 29 per cent to approximately 596,000 tonnes, while white varieties declined only 9 per cent to around 669,000 tonnes.
Figure 3: Australian winegrape crush by colour over time (million tonnes) (Source: Wine Australia)
Grape pricing also indicates changing supply and demand conditions. According to Wine Australia's National Vintage Report 2026, the national weighted average purchase price fell by 6 per cent to $570 per tonne despite the smaller crush, underscoring the extent to which demand-side pressures continue to outweigh reductions in production.
Conditions have been particularly challenging in Australia's major warm inland wine regions, which account for a significant share of the country's commercial red wine production. Average purchase prices across the Riverland, Murray Darling-Swan Hill and Riverina declined from $351 per tonne in 2025 to $329 per tonne in 2026, around 18 per cent below the long-term average.
Pressure has been especially acute for varieties associated with Australia's red wine surplus, most notably Shiraz and Cabernet Sauvignon. While the reopening of the Chinese market has provided renewed export opportunities for some producers, excess global supply and declining consumption of red wine continue to weigh heavily on demand and pricing. As a result, the industry is increasingly confronting a structural mismatch between Australia's historic production profile and the wine styles currently driving growth in global markets.
Diverging grape prices
Purchase-price trends provide a further indication of how market conditions are changing.
Cool-climate grapes continue to attract the highest prices in Australia, reflecting their association with premium wine production. However, pricing trends for cool-climate red and white varieties have moved closer together over the past decade.
Cool-climate red grape prices increased to a peak of $1,700 per tonne in 2020 before easing to around $1,440 per tonne in 2026. Cool-climate white grape prices increased from less than $1,000 per tonne in 2016 to $1,360 per tonne in 2026. By 2026, the price gap between the two categories had narrowed to less than $100 per tonne.
The shift is even more apparent in Australia's warm inland regions. Warm red grape prices climbed from $345 per tonne in 2016 to more than $650 per tonne in 2020, supported by strong export demand and expansion of red wine production. Since then, prices have fallen dramatically to $290 per tonne by 2026. This represents a decline of more than 55 per cent from the 2020 peak and reflects a combination of weaker global red wine demand, accumulated inventories and ongoing oversupply of commercial red wine.
By comparison, warm white grape prices have proven considerably more resilient. Prices increased from $285 per tonne in 2016 to more than $400 per tonne by 2021 and have broadly held those gains despite recent market weakness. In 2026, warm white grapes commanded an average price of $350 per tonne, around 20 per cent higher than warm red grapes.
Figure 4: Australian winegrape purchase prices by colour and region over time ($ per tonne)
By contrast, growers producing premium white varieties and cool-climate fruit have generally been more insulated from the downturn. Chardonnay has emerged as a strategically important variety, supported by domestic demand and increasing international recognition. Regions such as Margaret River, Adelaide Hills, Yarra Valley and Tasmania have established global reputations for premium Chardonnay, enabling producers to capture value from the shift towards high-quality white wines.
The divergence in grape prices between red and white varieties reflects broader shifts underway in global wine consumption. As consumers increasingly favour freshness, versatility and lower-alcohol styles, regions and producers aligned with these preferences have generally proven more resilient. Conversely, producers with greater exposure to commercial red wine categories continue to face substantial adjustment pressures.
The convergence of cool-climate red and white grape prices, combined with the reversal of the longstanding premium enjoyed by warm-climate red grapes, suggests the industry's challenges extend beyond a cyclical downturn. Instead, these trends are consistent with a broader rebalancing of global wine demand that is reshaping production decisions and investment across the Australian wine sector.
A more balanced future for Australian wine
The evidence points to a clear conclusion: the global wine industry is not simply experiencing a cyclical downturn. Rather, it is undergoing a fundamental rebalancing of consumer preferences, with demand increasingly shifting away from traditional red wine and towards white wine, sparkling wine and lighter, more occasion-flexible styles.
The significance of this shift extends beyond changes in consumption patterns. Increasingly, it is influencing production profiles, grape prices, investment decisions and the competitive dynamics of wine-producing countries around the world. The evolution of Australia’s crush mix and the changing relationship between red and white grape prices suggest these global trends are already being reflected throughout the Australian wine sector.
This does not signal the end of red wine's importance. Premium red wines remain among Australia’s most recognised wine assets, while innovation in style, serving and positioning creates further opportunities to extend red wine into new occasions.
White wine and sparkling wine represent important opportunities for Australian wine. They have proven more resilient to declining alcohol consumption, benefiting from trends towards moderation, refreshment, versatility and informal social occasions. They have also been more successful at attracting younger consumers.
The implication for Australia is not to choose between red and white. It is to better align its diverse wine offer with a changing mix of consumers, markets and occasions, balancing Australia's red wine heritage with evolving consumer demand for fresher, lighter and more approachable wine styles.