The latest global consumption data from IWSR reveals ongoing change in the world of wine. In 2024, wine consumption volumes declined by 3 per cent to 2.3 billion 9-litre cases, while total value increased by 1% to US$191 billion. Looking ahead, both volume and value are forecast to soften slightly, declining by 1 per cent per year through to 2029 (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: Volume and value of global wine consumption
Source: IWSR
While the long-term decline in wine consumption volume continues, rising value signals a shift in consumer preferences: people are drinking less, but choosing higher-quality wines. Over the past five years, consumption of commercial wine (wines valued below US$10 per bottle) has declined by an average of 4 per cent per year, while premium wine consumption (valued at US$10 per bottle and above) has fallen at a much slower rate of 1 per cent per year and is expected to remain flat over the next five. While premium wine is expected to be stable in the forecast period, it is no longer offsetting some of the decline in commercial wine globally.
Market transitions in mature wine markets
The premiumisation trend has supported value growth in many major wine markets in recent years. However, this trend is forecast to moderate. Markets historically strong in value are projected to decline in the coming years, including the United States (forecast to decline by 3% in value per year over the next five years), the United Kingdom (-1%), France (-1%), Germany (-1%), and Canada (-2%). This shift is reflected in Wine Australia’s ‘Market opportunities’ analysis (see Figure 2), which highlights movement of the major global wine markets to the lower quadrant, indicating lower forecast growth. Economic challenges and health concerns are shifting demand in these historically dependable markets.
Figure 2: Size and growth of imported wine markets
Source: IWSR and Wine Australia analysis, via the Market Explorer
China presents a more stabilised outlook. While the value of imported wine consumption in mainland China declined by an average of 17 per cent annually over the past five years, future growth of 1 per cent per annum is projected, signalling a more balanced period ahead (see Figure 3).
Figure 3: Volume and value of wine consumption in mainland China
Source: IWSR, via the Market Explorer
Where is growth forecast?
Australia’s wine market shows cautious optimism, especially when compared to other mature markets. Value is expected to grow slightly year on year over the next five years, driven by continued growth in premium wine (although at slightly lower rates than previous years), lighter styles such as sparkling and rose, and lower-alcohol wines. Australia’s projected economic growth, easing inflation, and stable political environment also helps consumer confidence and further supports this outlook.
Elsewhere, the Nordic markets of Sweden and Norway are forecast to see annual growth of 1 per cent in value per year. Although geopolitical tensions and inflation are impacting on consumer spending, these markets are embracing lighter wine styles and sustainable packaging formats such as PET and cans, which are resonating with environmentally conscious consumers in the market.
Brazil also presents positive signs, with value growth forecast at 1 per cent annually, driven by rising demand for imported and premium wines. While political and economic factors remain a challenge, current inventory issues in wine are expected to stabilise this year. Wine maintains a sophisticated image in Brazil with a low per capita consumption and potential for growth.
In addition, emerging wine markets such as South Korea, Thailand, India, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Malaysia are forecast to grow in value — albeit off smaller bases – highlighting future opportunities for Australian wine exporters.
Market Explorer update
Wine Australia’s Market Explorer has been updated with the latest wine consumption data from IWSR.
Due to a change in the data arrangements with IWSR, non-levy payers can no longer access the Market Explorer.
Australian winegrape levy-payers and wine exporters can access the Market Explorer using their levy-payer access accounts on the Wine Australia website. To sign up, please visit https://www.wineaustralia.com/signup and provide your business ABN or Exporter ID.