Twelve months on from the removal of tariffs, Australian wine exports to mainland China have rebounded to over $1 billion in value — a return to the market that reflects strong demand for premium red wines.
But beyond the headline figures, the data tells a more nuanced story about volume, value, and the longer-term outlook for Australian producers.
This Market Bulletin explores where the growth is coming from, what it means for the broader industry and the opportunities and challenges ahead in one of our most significant export markets.
Latest export figures
Australian wine has made a remarkable return to the mainland China market. In the 12 months since import duties were removed on Australian bottled wine in March 2024, exports have surged. The value of Australian wine shipments to mainland China grew from $13 million to just over $1 billion and from 2 million litres to 96 million litres in volume.
Mainland China currently represents 39 per cent of Australian wine’s total export value — making it our number one export market by value — and 15 per cent by volume, placing it third behind the UK and US.
How does this compare to past performance?
This rebound into mainland China takes export value to a similar level to the years immediately before the tariffs. The value of exports to mainland China are at their highest level since November 2020, when the tariffs on Australian bottled wine came into force. However, the volume tells a different story.
Export volume in the 12 months to March 2025 was 23 per cent lower than the five-year average (2016 to 2020), and 44 per cent below the peak in 2018 (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: Volume of exports to mainland China
Source: Wine Australia
Will exports to mainland China solve Australia’s red wine over-supply?
In short, not entirely. The average value of packaged wine shipped to mainland China was $23.00 per litre, much higher than all other major export markets. This underscores mainland China’s role as a premium destination for Australian wine.
It is important to note that the current oversupply has been most severe in inland growing regions such as the Riverland, Murray Darling–Swan Hill and Riverina, and is concentrated in lower-value red wine. These regions predominantly supply grapes for wines that are exported at prices below $5 per litre.
While there has been some growth in unpackaged red wine exports to mainland China in the last 12 months (with an average value below $2.50 per litre), that growth has slowed in the last two quarters of the year. This suggests early restocking activity, rather than sustainable long-term demand.
Is more growth expected?
Data indicates that the initial surge is beginning to level out, with China growth slowing in the last quarter.
Compared to the two previous March MATs in the pre-tariff period, the 12 months ended March 2025 shows an export pattern more heavily weighted to the start of the year, with most shipments occurring in the first quarter post-reopening. This reflects a re-stocking of Australian wine in the market, with the three subsequent quarters lower in value compared to the periods pre-tariffs (see Figure 2).
Figure 2: Value of exports to mainland China by quarter
Source: Wine Australia
Given that China’s wine market is in decline, it will be difficult to maintain this level of growth. Wine consumption in China remains well below pre-2020 levels and while Australian wine is regaining shelf space, it will take more time to determine what the “new normal” level of Australian exports to China will be.
Continued growth for Australia is not assured, and market diversification remains critical in a challenging global environment.
What’s the current state of the mainland China wine market?
Mainland China’s wine market has undergone a fundamental transformation:
- Total wine imports (excluding Australia) are now just one-third of what they were five years ago.
- Consumption of domestic Chinese wine has collapsed, declining by 70 per cent in volume over the same period.
Wine imports were falling in China prior to the 2020 imposition of duties – Australian wine exports were one of the few bright spots, growing against the trend. Notably, no other country replaced the volume of Australian wine exports in mainland China during the tariff period.
Australia has bounced back to once again claim the number one imported wine category in mainland China. In contrast, imports from Australia’s major competitors France, Chile and Italy continue to decline (see Figure 3).
Figure 3: Exports to mainland China by major producing countries
Source: Trade Data Monitor
The China wine decline was exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns, a slowing economy and low consumer confidence. Australia’s temporary absence from the wine market hastened this decline.
The latest retail data from IWSR on the wine market in China shows that total wine sales fell by a further 9 per cent in 2024, despite Australia re-entering the market. IWSR reports that the reduction in wine consumption is due primarily to fewer business occasions which have traditionally accounted for a large proportion of consumption, as well as consumers cutting back on alcohol expenditure due to financial concerns.
Looking forward, IWSR predict that unfavourable demographic trends, such as a rapidly ageing and shrinking population, are expected to reduce alcohol consumption further. They have also forecast that Australian wines will continue to take share from other major producers such as France and Chile in 2025.
What wine styles are Australian producers exporting to China?
Still red wine exports remain dominant, contributing 93 per cent of the volume shipped to mainland China in the 12 months ended March 2025. Still white wine had a 6 per cent volume share (up slightly from 4 per cent in 2020), while sparkling and fortified wines made up the remainder.
There are signs that wine drinkers in China have become more adventurous and open to exploring other wine styles such as white wines and sparkling wine. Anecdotally, there is also growing interest in no and low alcohol wines, reflecting the broader health and wellness and moderation trends that are influencing wine consumption globally.
How is Wine Australia supporting producers in the China market?
Consumer sentiment in mainland China towards Australian wine remains strong – particularly in the premium segment. Around 85 per cent of Australia’s export value to mainland China is now priced at $5 FOB or more per litre, translating to approximately ¥80 RMB retail or higher.
Wine Australia has been actively working to reinforce the premium positioning of Australian wine, through in-market promotional and trade engagement activities to drive demand.
The China Market Update 2025 provided insights on the current business environment, opportunities and challenges for Australian wine, local trade and cultural insights, the digital landscape for exporters or those considering mainland China as a potential export market.
Following the removal of import duties in March 2024, Wine Australia mobilised producers for several headline events that generated renewed interest and enthusiasm for Australian wine in China, including:
- August 2024 China Roadshow: A high-impact event with masterclasses and tastings held in Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu and Guangzhou featuring 50 exhibitors and more than 90 Australian wine brands. The 2024 Roadshow attracted more than 2,500 Chinese trade visitors including influential wine buyers, importers, distributors and media.
- November 2024 China International Import Expo: an Austrade-led showcase for Australian producers.
- November 2024 ProWine Shanghai: the Australian Wine pavilion hosted 33 exhibitors representing over 40 brands.
- The recently held China Market Update featured presentations by Wine Australia, Austrade, Wine Australia and United Media Solutions and took a deep dive into the current wine market in China.
Building on the success of these 2024 events, upcoming activity in China has been designed to benefit those in the market, such as:
- Australian Wine Discovered Education Program promotion: experienced wine educators are delivering a series of Australian wine seminars across 20 cities in mainland China for key trade and industry professionals, to increase their knowledge of Australian wines. Producers can submit wines that are available in the mainland China market for consideration in this activity via the link below.
- September 2025 China Roadshow: the 2025 Roadshow will visit Wuhan, Chongqing, Xiamen, and Shenzhen — markets selected for their current and future trading potential for Australian wine, which will again showcase our best wines and demonstrate the quality and diversity of Australian wine.
- November 2025 ProWine Shanghai: pending sufficient interest from Australian wineries, Wine Australia is seeking EOIs for the Australian Wine pavilion, offering exporters an opportunity to connect with influential Chinese importers, distributors, wholesalers and media. Participants will benefit from a coordinated PR campaign designed to boost visibility and drive demand.
These activities are part of a broader effort to reignite Chinese trade and consumer engagement with Australian wine, ensuring our producers are front and centre in a competitive and fast-evolving market.
For more on these events, visit www.wineaustralia.com/whats-happening/events.