Global wine consumption continues to decline, but not equally across markets, with new data from IWSR revealing a decline in both volume and value in 2025.
The latest wine consumption figures show a global decline of 3.2 billion litres since 2020, a rate of 3 per cent per year on average. While the value of wine consumption has grown by an average of 1 per cent per year since 2020, value also declined slightly in the past year, for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic.
While this contraction isn’t new, it is continuing to shape the operating environment for Australian wine businesses, particularly as cost pressures and changing consumer behaviours make growth harder to achieve in key markets.
This Market Bulletin will break down the markets and price points where the decline is more concentrated, highlight significant trends in key markets for Australian wine exporters and areas of growth that can be targeted.
Australian winegrape levy-payers and exporters can also explore the latest data using Wine Australia’s Market Explorer tool.
Wine consumption is declining – but not equally across markets
Global wine consumption is declining, but there are markets that are contributing more to this decline than others.
- The United States (US) is the largest driver of decline, where wine consumption dropped by 73 million 9-litre cases between 2020 and 2025 (see Figure 1).
- Although mainland China is much smaller than other key wine markets such as France, Germany, and Italy, the decline is significant. The Chinese wine market is 58 per cent smaller in 2025 than it was in 2020, dropping from the 9th largest wine market by volume to 16th.
- Other major markets, including France, Italy, the United Kingdom (UK) and Canada, have also declined though to a lesser extent.
At the same time, some larger wine markets resisted this trend during the last five years, with Spain, South Africa, and Portugal growing by 2, 5, and 1 per cent per year respectively, demonstrating that performance is not uniform across the global market.
Figure 1: Top 12 markets in declining wine consumption (2020-2025)
Source: IWSR
How Australia’s key markets are tracking
Around 80 per cent of Australian wine is consumed in five markets – Australia, the UK, US, Canada and mainland China – and all five markets declined over the last five years.
There are two key shifts shaping demand:
- Consumers are drinking less overall
- Premiumisation – where consumers choose to drink less wine but spend more when they do – is still present, but premium wine sales (above US$10 per bottle) have slowed due to cost-of-living pressures.
Across the US, UK, Australia and Canada, commercial wine consumption is declining at a faster rate than premium wine consumption (see Figure 2). The deterioration in commercial wine in the US over the last five years represents a loss of 65 million 9-litre cases, or nearly 600 million litres of wine. This has had a significant impact on Australian wine, given the sector’s exposure to lower price points in the US market.
Premium wine consumption has also trended downwards slightly in these markets, except for Australia where it was flat.
Mainland China is unique in this group in that both the premium and commercial segments are declining at similar rates, and faster than other markets. In the next five years, IWSR expects the trend for commercial and premium wine in these markets to continue along a similar trajectory as the last five years.
Figure 2: Commercial vs premium consumption in key markets for Australian wine
Source: IWSR
Where is there growth?
While the largest wine markets in the world are declining, there are still pockets of growth and opportunity emerging across smaller markets and different wine styles.
Emerging markets present growth opportunities
Analysis by Wine Australia, using IWSR data (available via the Market Explorer), reveals that the faster growth rates in imported wine markets can be found in smaller, less traditional wine markets (see Figure 3).
The markets shown in the top half of the chart, such as Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, India and United Arab Emirates, have higher forecast growth in the value of imported wine consumption. These bubbles represent the size of the imported wine market and are generally smaller, but have higher expected growth than other, much larger markets.
Figure 3: Size and growth of imported wine markets
Source: IWSR and Wine Australia analysis, accessible via the Market Explorer
Shifts by wine style
A closer look at consumption by wine style shows a clearer picture of where demand is changing:
- Red wine has seen the largest decline, decreasing by more than 400 million 9-litre cases since the last peak in 2017 (see Figure 4), or 4 per cent per year on average.
- Still white and rosé wine have declined more moderately, by an average of 2 per cent per year.
- In comparison, sparkling wine has grown by 1 per cent per year over the same period.
Figuer 4: Global wine consumption by wine style
Source: IWSR
Emerging category: low and no alcohol wine
Consumption of no and low alcohol wine is also growing, although the category still has a small share of overall wine consumption. These wines have grown by an average rate of 8 per cent per year over the last decade, up to 28 million 9-litre cases in 2025.
- Low-alcohol sparkling wine is by far the largest segment of this category, making up almost 50 per cent of sales globally.
- The UK and Germany are emerging as key growth markets in low and no alcohol wine, while the US grew strongly at the start of the decade and has slowed in recent years. .
This remains a small category but is gaining traction and may offer innovation opportunities aligned with moderation trends. Australian winegrape levy-payers and exporters can access new consumer research on the mid-strength wine category here.
The current global environment reflects a market that is adjusting rather than abruptly changing, with slower consumption, more selective consumers and increased competition across price points.
Understanding where demand is declining, and where it’s shifting, is critical to making informed decisions in your wine business.
Explore the latest data and identify opportunities for your business using the Market Explorer.