The US wine market remains under pressure, with declining consumption and heightened competition from both domestic and imported wines. Against this backdrop, a four-year trade and consumer research program was conducted with Wine Opinions, funded by Wine Australia. These new consumer and trade reports reveal how the US wine market has evolved between 2022–2025 and where Australian wine producers can stand out.
This bulletin outlines the most relevant insights for Australian exporters, bringing together Wine Opinions research with the latest US market trends from Circana and SipSource.
Key insights from consumers and trade research
The Wine Opinions research covered a range of topics over the four years, including mindful drinking, sustainability, varietal preferences, and trade portfolio and consumer purchase influence factors. It points to targeted areas of opportunity, particularly where consumer preferences are shifting and where the trade sees portfolio potential. At the same time, the latest sales data confirms that the broader US wine market remains challenging, with declines across most segments.
Mindful drinking – moderation is gaining traction, not abstinence
For each year of the study, consumers were asked to state their purchase of, or interest in purchasing, wines with attributes relating to mindful drinking, including low and no alcohol wine, or wines with lower calories and carbohydrates.
Over the four years, interest increased across most of these attributes, with the exception of no alcohol wine. The strongest interest was in wines with low or no sugar, lower calories or carbohydrates and lower alcohol. At least 20 per cent of consumers are now either purchasing or showing interest in purchasing wines with these attributes.
Interest was strongest among women and consumers aged 21 to 39, reinforcing the growing relevance of moderation and ‘wellness’ cues for younger adult wine consumers.
Trade respondents were also asked about their interest in adding lower alcohol wines to their portfolios, split into two sub-categories for alcohol by volume (ABV):
- 7% to 9% ABV
- Below 7% ABV
The results show consistently stronger trade interest in wines with an ABV of 7 per cent to 9 per cent than in wines below 7 per cent. In 2025, 26 per cent of trade respondents reported a high interest in adding wines in the 7 per cent to 9 per cent ABV range, compared to 17 per cent for wines with an ABV below 7 per cent.
For Australian producers, this suggests the clearest opportunity sits in mid-strength wine, rather than no alcohol wine, provided the product still delivers on flavour and quality expectations. This is consistent with recent research into the development of a mid-strength wine category commissioned by Wine Australia.
Sustainability – it matters, but how it’s communicated matters more
Consumers and trade were asked about the importance of certified sustainable production.
In 2025, 56 per cent of consumers indicated that certified sustainable production was very or somewhat important to them. This was significantly more important to consumers aged 21 to 39 than those aged 40 or older. It also rated more highly among respondents who regularly or occasionally buy Australian wines than among those who do not. This is due in part to the fact that Australian wine buyers skew to the younger age segment.
Trade respondents were shown three alternatives for identifying sustainably produced Australian wines on their front or back labels:
- A statement that the wine is “Sustainably produced”
- A statement of “Certified sustainable” production
- A logo or trustmark indicating certification of sustainable production
They were then asked to rank the options in order of their marketing value. “Certified Sustainable” was the clear preference, ranked first by 52 per cent of the trade. This statement performed especially strongly among importers, with 75 per cent ranking it first. It also ranked first with 54 per cent of the on-premise trade, 42 per cent of distributors and 55 per cent of retailers.
While the logo or trustmark was still ranked third in 2025, the share of trade respondents ranking it first doubled, increasing from 10 per cent to 21 per cent over the four years.
Varietals – consumer interest is moving toward lighter and sparkling styles
Consumers were asked to identify the varietal types of wine they purchase sometimes or regularly.
In 2025, Cabernet Sauvignon and Pinot Noir were most frequently purchased overall, with purchases skewed towards men and consumers aged 40 and over.
| Varietal type | All | Male | Female | 21-39 | 40-59 | 60+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cabernet Sauvignon | 64 | 70 | 57 | 36 | 70 | 76 |
| Pinot Noir | 60 | 66 | 53 | 35 | 66 | 71 |
| Sparkling wine | 53 | 53 | 53 | 41 | 61 | 54 |
| Rosé | 49 | 51 | 47 | 43 | 53 | 50 |
| Sauvignon Blanc | 49 | 52 | 46 | 33 | 54 | 55 |
| Chardonnay | 48 | 51 | 43 | 37 | 47 | 55 |
| GSM blends | 48 | 54 | 41 | 26 | 55 | 57 |
| Grenache | 36 | 43 | 27 | 19 | 41 | 42 |
| Shiraz | 36 | 43 | 29 | 17 | 40 | 45 |
| Riesling | 33 | 37 | 28 | 27 | 36 | 34 |
The next tier of varietals, purchased by around half of consumers, were sparkling wine, rosé, Sauvignon Blanc, Chardonnay and GSM blends. These showed a more even gender split, though still skewed slightly higher to males. Among consumers aged 21 to 39, sparkling wine and rosé were the most popular.
Shiraz and Riesling were the least popular among most gender and age groups. Shiraz was by far the least popular varietal among consumers aged 21 to 39, with only 17 per cent indicating they buy it, just behind Grenache at 19 per cent.
Consumers were also asked about familiarity with and interest in Australian Shiraz. In 2022, 78 per cent of consumers had tried and liked it. By 2025, that had fallen to 46 per cent. In the latest study, only 14 per cent of consumers who buy wine sometimes or regularly said they were interested in trying Australian Shiraz.
By comparison, 48 per cent were interested in trying Australian rosé and 45 per cent Australian sparkling wine.
This decline in consumer interest is also reflected in market performance. According to Circana, in the 12 months ended April 2026, US off-premise Shiraz sales fell by 20 per cent to just under 500,000 cases, representing only a 0.3 per cent market share. Australia still dominates Shiraz sales in the US with a 58 per cent share of the category, but Australian Shiraz sales also declined, down 14 per cent in the last year.
Australian exports of Shiraz to the US have been steadily declining over the past decade, from A$75 million in 2015 to A$25 million in the 12 months ended March 2026.
In comparison, Cabernet Sauvignon sales in the off-premise declined by 5 per cent to just over 21 million cases and a 15 per cent market share.
Trade respondents were asked which Australian varietals they see as having the strongest growth potential in the US. The top results were:
- Red blends
- Pinot Noir
- Sauvignon Blanc
- Sparkling wine
- Cabernet Sauvignon.
There were also differences by trade tier. On-premise respondents were more likely to favour Cabernet Sauvignon and Sauvignon Blanc. Retailers were more positive about Pinot Noir and red blends, and importers rated Sauvignon Blanc most strongly but were also optimistic about Pinot Noir.
Respondents who had seen growth in Australian wines priced at US$20 or more per bottle were significantly more optimistic about Australian Pinot Noir, Riesling and sparkling wine than other respondents.
Portfolio addition influence factors – quality, fit and regional credibility drive trade decisions
Importers, distributors, on-premise and off-premise trade respondents were asked to assess a range of factors that might influence a decision to add a wine that would sell between US$20 and $US40 per bottle to their portfolio.
Across the study, the most important factors were:
- personally liking the wine
- filling a gap in their portfolio
- the wine originating from a region known for quality in that varietal.
These priorities have not changed significantly since the first year of the study.
Consumer purchase influence factors – familiarity still drives purchase decisions, but younger buyers are open to influence
Consumers were asked to rate the importance of several wine purchase factors, excluding price, on a scale of 1-7.
By far, the most important factor was knowing and liking the varietal. This was followed by knowing the wine’s region of origin. Both these factors outranked all others across gender and age groups.
Consumers in the youngest age segment gave significantly higher ratings than those aged 40 and above to 90-plus critic scores and recommendations from wine-knowledgeable family members, retail staff and wine apps.
This suggests that while familiarity remains the strongest purchase driver overall, younger consumers may be more open to influence through trusted recommendations and external validation.
Key insights from the latest market data
The Wine Opinions research helps wineries identify where preferences are shifting, but the wider US wine market remains difficult as it continues to trend downward – not just for Australian wine, but overall.
Circana reports that for the 12 months ended April 2026, US off-premise wine sales declined by 4 per cent in value and 5 per cent in volume. Australian wine sales were hit even harder, with value down 16 per cent and volume by 14 per cent.
Sales from all other major countries of origin also declined, including domestic wines. The market declined across most price points, but two segments showed growth:
- $US15 to US$19.99, up 6 per cent
- US$25 or more, up 6 per cent.
SipSource data for the 12 months ended March 2026 shows the decline in sales was evident across the country. The largest declines were recorded in the western US, particularly West North Central (down 13 per cent), Pacific (down 11 per cent) and Mountain (down 10 per cent), shown on the map below.
More information
Australian wine levy payers can access the research in more detail by downloading the reports.